Video Transcription
"Chinese Exports Will Be Affected"
Host: Martin Soong
Host: For now let’s talk again to Todd Everts. He’s standing by from our
studio up in Hong Kong. We’ve also had a numbers out of China this morning, Todd,
or actually yesterday inflation looks like it’s taking care of itself I guess the
big question is post the Olympics whether this economy is going to get back on the
run now that all the factors are turned back or the cars are flooding the roads
again or whether we’re going to have a post-Olympic. What do you figure?
Todd G. Everts: I think there are a few issues to be discussed. First is
probably too many companies in China went public because of the flood of capital
through the Hong Kong markets and the different exchanges in China where there are
certain companies that probably shouldn’t have gone public that are, that are not
going to continue to draw investor attention and we’re going to continue to see
in a broad base those stocks not performing. The larger companies, the companies
that have market share inside of China and outside of China should start to recover
in some time in the near future. The key is, as it always is, is that consumer demand
from the United States and now today from Europe and Europe is having its own problems
from a consumer perspective, the US as we talked about earlier is certainly having
problems. If we look back the credit crisis that started in June 2007 from the start
of the collapse of Bear Stearns wasn’t felt in the Christmas season last year. Definitely
this year the US consumer..we’re going to see the follow-on effect in China because
the US consumer…I don’t think is going to be there this Christmas because they have
to pay their mortgage and they have to pay their other obligations before they go
crazy at Christmas.
Host: Indeed. If we could just sort of change here. I want to get back to
a point you made just before we went to the break, and that is that you know credit
conditions are tight, it’s hard to get..to raise money..it’s hard to leverage up
if that’s what you want to do and just couple of days ago, Todd, I know you were
down at the Hedge Fund Conference, I was there too…For hedge funds themselves I
mean that’s exactly what they need..they need financing, they need to leverage up
in order to deliver the kinds of returns that they’re promising – maybe not promising
– but telling investors that they can give ‘em.. but I mean, times are a lot tougher
now.
Todd G. Everts: Well, times are tougher and it could get a lot worse. In
the mutual fund industry where the traditional long only asset management industry
when investor makes a decision to fire a manager or re-allocate their capital to
a different manager they can do it at virtually anytime. In the hedge fund industry
many times there’s a lock0in period of 2 years, sometimes 1 year, 90 days notice
and then 6 months later you get your capital back. So what’s still happening in
the hedge fund industry we’re gonna continue to see some failures is investors that
put in redemption when the Bear Stearns credit crisis event started to happen last..a
year ago..summer of 2007, those redemptions are actually happening today. And investors
that are pulling money back today will see those effects in the 1st quarter of 2009.
So the fact that the hedge fund manager doesn’t have access to capital has to manage
their existing investor’s expectations may not have new capital coming in puts a
lot of pressure on those managers and that’s the environment that we’re in. The
managers that have the cash and have done well can find extraordinary opportunities
to reward their investors with great returns.
Host: Alright Todd hold that thought we’ll come back and talk more in just
a bit.
|